Global Protected Areas as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change

Protected Areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. Here, we collated distributional data for >14,000 (~70% of) species of amphibians and reptiles (herpetofauna) to perform a global assessment of the conservation effectiveness of PAs using species distribution models. Our analyses reveal that >91% of herpetofauna species are currently distributed in PAs, and that this proportion will remain unaltered under future climate change. Indeed, loss of species’ distributional ranges will be lower inside PAs than outside them. Therefore, the proportion of effectively protected species is predicted to increase. However, over 7.8% of species currently occur outside PAs, and large spatial conservation gaps remain, mainly across tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, and across non-high-income countries. We also predict that more than 300 amphibian and 500 reptile species may go extinct under climate change over the course of the ongoing century. Our study highlights the importance of PAs in providing herpetofauna with refuge from climate change, and suggests ways to optimize PAs to better conserve biodiversity worldwide.

six continents for small range species. The first and third columns represent the percent of species richness in PAs for amphibians and reptiles; The second and fourth columns represent rarity weighted richness in PAs. The first to fourth rows represent RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The red color indicates current, blue indicates by 2070. Abbreviations for continents: NA = North America, SA = South America, EU = Europe, AF = Africa, AS = Asia, OC = Oceania. We assume future land use remains unchanged for this study.
six continents for IUCN threatened species. The first and third columns represent the percent of species richness in PAs for amphibians and reptiles; The second and fourth columns represent rarity weighted richness in PAs. The first to fourth rows represent RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The red color indicates current, blue indicates by 2070. Abbreviations for continents: NA = North America, SA = South America, EU = Europe, AF = Africa, AS = Asia, OC = Oceania. We assume future land use remains unchanged for this study. inside and outside protected areas (PAs) by 2070 for all species. The first column represents a percent of species range change inside and outside PAs; the second column represents the percent of predicted species range in PAs at present and by 2070; the third column represents the proportion of species having > 15% of range inside PAs; the fourth column represents the proportion of species having > 30% of range inside PAs.
The first to fourth rows represent RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. In first column n = 5399 and 8932 for amphibian and reptiles. In second column n = 5399 and 8932 for amphibian and reptile under current; n = 5040, 4876, 4835 and 4628 for amphibian, 8387, 8190, 8134 and 7834 for reptile under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. The points and error bars in the first and second columns represent the medians, the 25% and 75% quantiles. We assume future land use remains unchanged for this study. inside and outside protected areas (PAs) by 2070 for small range species. The first column represents the percent of species range change inside and outside PAs; the second column represents the percent of predicted species range in PAs at present and by 2070; the third column represents the proportion of species having > 15% of range inside PAs; the fourth column represents the proportion of species having > 30% of range inside PAs. The first to fourth rows represent RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. In first column n = 2697 and 4435 for amphibian and reptiles. In second column n = 2697 and 4435 for amphibian and reptile under current; n = 2354, 2194, 2161 and 1967 for amphibian, 3897, 3707, 3660 and 3383 for reptile under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. The points and error bars in the first and second columns represent the medians, the 25% and 75% quantiles. We assume future land use remains unchanged for this study.
inside and outside protected areas (PAs) by 2070 for IUCN threatened species. The first column represents the percent of species range change inside and outside PAs; the second column represents the percent of predicted species range in PAs at present and by 2070; the third column represents the proportion of species having > 15% of range inside PAs; the fourth column represents the proportion of species having > 30% of range inside PAs. The first to fourth rows represent RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. In first column n = 1275 and 1474 for amphibian and reptiles. In second column n = 1275 and 1474 for amphibian and reptile under current; n = 1160, 1112, 1091 and 1022 for amphibian, 1335, 1288, 1260 and 1181 for reptile under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. The points and error bars in the first and second columns represent the medians, the 25% and 75% quantiles. We assume future land use remains unchanged for this study.
inside and outside all protected areas (PAs, Class I to VI) by 2070 for all species (Class I to VI). The first column represents a percent of species range change inside and outside PAs; the second column represents the percent of predicted species range in PAs at present and by 2070; the third column represents the proportion of species having > 15% of range inside PAs; the fourth column represents the proportion of species having > 30% of range inside PAs. The first to fourth rows represent RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. In first column n = 5399 and 8932 for amphibian and reptiles. In second column n = 5399 and 8932 for amphibian and reptile under current; n = 5040, 4876, 4835 and 4628 for amphibian, 8387, 8190, 8134 and 7834 for reptile under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. The points and error bars in the first and second columns represent the medians, the 25% and 75% quantiles. We assume future land use remains unchanged for this study.

Supplementary Figure 14 Climate change impacts on the percentage of species range (area of habitat)
in protected areas (PAs) in six continents for small range species. The first and four columns represent the percentage of species range in PAs for amphibians and reptiles; the second and fifth column represents the proportion of species having > 15% of range inside PAs for amphibians and reptiles; the third and sixth column represents the proportion of species having > 30% of range inside PAs. The first to fourth rows represent RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The red color indicates current, blue indicates by 2070. Abbreviations for continents: NA = North America, SA = South America, EU = Europe, AF = Africa, AS = Asia, OC = Oceania. In first column n = 652, 855,41,415,624,142 for six continents under current;581,732,35,362,548,124 for six continents under RCP 2.6;550,669,31,337,521,116 under RCP 4.5;533,666,28,332,518,113 under RCP 6.0;500,597,26,301,476,100 under RCP 8.5 2.6;920, 606, 97, 733, 1064, 502 under RCP 4.5;900, 624, 90, 706, 1061, 484 under RCP 6.0;862, 542, 88, 672, 985, 437 under RCP 8.5. The points and error bars in the first and fourth columns represent the medians, the 25% and 75% quantiles. We assume future land use remains unchanged for this study.   345,232,64,247,350,139 under RCP 6.0;336,214,63,236,332,116 under RCP 8.5. The points and error bars in the first and fourth columns represent the medians, the 25% and 75% quantiles. We assume future land use remains unchanged for this study.

Supplementary Figure 16 Climate change impacts on the percentage of species range (area of habitat) in all protected areas (PAs, Class I to VI) in six continents for all species. The first and four columns
represent the percentage of species range in PAs for amphibians and reptiles; the second and fifth column represents the proportion of species having > 15% of range inside PAs for amphibians and reptiles; the third and sixth column represents the proportion of species having > 30% of range inside PAs. The first to fourth rows represent RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The red color indicates current, blue indicates by 2070.
Abbreviations for continents: NA = North America, SA = South America, EU = Europe, AF = Africa, AS = Asia, OC = Oceania. In first column n = 1275, 1906, 148, 809, 12721201, 1780, 142, 754, 11901168, 1715, 138, 729, 11631143, 1714, 135, 724, 11601105, 1642, 133, 690, 1118, 310 under RCP 8.5. In fourth column n = 2149, 1763, 410, 1818, 2535, 15212042, 1674, 397, 1721, 2398, 13892020, 1620, 387, 1698, 2334, 13561995, 1641, 380, 1671, 2330, 13311955, 1552, 377, 1635, 2253, 1273. The points and error bars in the first and fourth columns represent the medians, the 25% and 75% quantiles. We assume future land use remains unchanged for this study. Noteworthy, areas in blue represent areas that currently fall into the top species richness category and that are expected to suffer a low percent of species loss due to climate change by 2070; in short, they are climaterobust areas of high species richness. The second row represents conservation gaps (areas falling into the top 20% in terms of species richness and the bottom 20% in terms of future species loss due to climate change, yet fall outside the PA network) of amphibians and reptiles. The third row represents conservation gaps for countries. Colors represent area of conservation gaps in countries, circle sizes represent the percentage of conservation gap area with respect to the land area in countries. We assume future land use remains unchanged for this study.

Supplementary Figure 18 Conservation priority and conservation gaps for global herpetofauna by
2070 (RCP 6.0). The first row represents the bivariate maps showing species richness versus percent of species loss for amphibians and reptiles. Each color change means a 10% quantile shift in either variable.
Noteworthy, areas in blue represent areas that currently fall into the top species richness category and that are expected to suffer a low percent of species loss due to climate change by 2070; in short, they are climaterobust areas of high species richness. The second row represents conservation gaps (areas falling into the top 20% in terms of species richness and the bottom 20% in terms of future species loss due to climate change, yet fall outside the PA network) of amphibians and reptiles. The third row represents conservation gaps for countries. Colors represent area of conservation gaps in countries, circle sizes represent the percentage of conservation gap area with respect to the land area in countries. We assume future land use remains unchanged for this study. the non-high-income countries account for 81.7% and 81.2% (unprotected area of a country > median unprotected area of all countries); the non-high-income countries account for 82.0% and 69.0% (Percent of unprotected area occupy the total land area of that country > 10%). Gross National Income (GNI) data is from https://data.worldbank.org/, we averaged GNI for each country from 2010-2014. Country class based on GNI: low income, GNI < $1036; lower middle, $1036 ≤ GNI < $4045; upper middle, $4045≤ GNI < $12535; high income, GNI ≥ $12535.

Supplementary Tables
Supplementary Table 1